How the yuan can replace the US dollar as the reserve currency

Us dollar banknote vs. yuan banknote against the background of a world map

It is clear that digital central bank money (CBDC) is coming. What is less clear, however, is how it will affect the international monetary order. More than ever, the question arises whether the US dollar will still be the global reserve currency at the end of this decade. How the oil company Saudi Aramco will turn its back on the US dollar and how the world’s largest free trade agreement, RCEP, could lead to a new „Asian Bretton Woods“.

There is no doubt that the US dollar is the global reserve currency. Even the world’s number two reserve currency, the euro, is far from being as established as the „greenback“. Not only is commodity trade conducted in US dollars, but non-American companies and states also hold US dollars as their reserve currency in order by Bitcoin Trader to remain able to act on the global stage, even if they are not bound by their national currency. Despite China’s economic rise and the simultaneous weakening of the Western industrial nations, there is no sign of a „Euro-Yuan-Flippening“, let alone a US Dollar replacement.

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Even an economic superiority of China over the USA, which could arise in the next five years, would not per se lead to a change of status. Rather, the rise and fall of a reserve currency should be understood as a process that can extend over several years, even decades – except in extreme situations such as wars and currency collapse. In addition to economic dominance, technological, political, military and cultural dominance are also decisive for the status of a currency.

The year 2020 marks a turning point in the currency hegemony of the US dollar and subsequently the euro. Not only did China carry out practical tests of its digital central bank currency, i.e. a digital yuan, this year, but further milestones have also been set for the replacement of the current reserve currency.

Yuan instead of US dollar: Saudi Aramco tries new ways

Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco – the world’s most valuable listed company – has announced that it is considering a bond issue in yuan rather than US dollars. Until recently, the mere possibility of issuing yuan-based securities in the international oil business was unthinkable. But growing business relations with China and China’s intention to establish a „Petroyuan“ are scratching at the supposedly immovable status of the US dollar. In addition, new technical infrastructures are calling into question the previous Western-dominated settlement standards.

In February this year, for example, the oil company Saudi Aramco invested five million US dollars in the block-chain-based oil trading platform Vakt. The start-up Vakt aims to make the trading process in commodities trading, especially oil, significantly more efficient by means of smart contracts, tokenisation and new block chain infrastructures. For states such as Dubai, the new trading infrastructures could mean independence from existing – mainly US-American – structures. In particular, the changeover to token infrastructures offers the opportunity to question the existing status of the US dollar as the reserve currency. This could reduce the impact of sanctions in the event of political disagreements and power games.

RCEP: The largest free trade agreement in the world

As the example of oil shows, international trade plays a particularly important role in monetary matters. The more nations agree to accept a currency for contracts and trade, the more power this gives to the issuing central bank and thus to the state. The RCEP free trade agreement concluded this month marks a historic turning point in international trade. The world’s largest free trade agreement or zone, where the US and Europe can only watch from the sidelines, has one leader: China.

The largest economy in the RCEP can thus take on the trade role that the US took on after the Second World War. Not only does this make China increasingly independent of the West, but it also allows it to impose its own standards, including the yuan as its reserve currency. Especially since the Asian region is already clearly superior to the West in terms of payment methods. Due to the higher degree of digitisation in payment methods, it is easier to integrate digital central bank money than, for example, in cash-loving Germany.

The exchange Blox has received authorisation to operate in the Netherlands

Thanks to this new company, even small Dutch traders will be able to invest in crypto

The BLOX exchange has received the green light to operate in the Netherlands: it is the first platform to receive authorisation since the country implemented the European Union’s fifth anti-money laundering directive (AMLD5).

On 6 November, the company stated in a blog post:

„BLOX is the first crypto company to be included in the Dutch Central Bank’s register. […] This registration is mandatory in the Netherlands for any company that allows its users to buy, sell, trade and hold crypto-currency.“

The crypto service provider AMDAX BV also found itself in the spotlight in October as the first company of its kind in the region: AMDAX, however, only targets large investors. In a statement on Finextra in October, the company pointed out that „AMDAX supports both companies and private investors with a portfolio – starting with investments of 2.5 Bitcoins – with crypto currency trading, a secure deposit and insured custody“.

As can be seen on the list of authorised crypto companies, the Anycoin Direct exchange was also registered on 6 November.

A blog post on the company specified:

„BLOX allows consumers to invest in their favourite digital currency from just 1 euro. […] Therefore, the Dutch Central Bank’s approval means that the cryptos will remain widely accessible to the general public“.

Unlike the three companies mentioned above, the Deribit crypto derivatives exchange left the Netherlands in January 2020 to avoid the new regulations.

Bitcoin palautuu yli 13 800 dollarin ja 14 000 dollarin vastustuskyvyn, mutta ei ylläpitää nousutrendiä

Kolikon IdolBitcoinin ylöspäin suuntautuva liike oli lyhytikäinen
Bitcoin-härät ovat jatkaneet nykyisen nousutrendin ylläpitämistä ostajien ollessa yli 14 000 dollarin vastarinnan. Eilen kuninkaan kolikko nousi kahdesti 13 600 dollarin yläpuolelle, kun hinta rikkoi vastustuksen 13 800 ja 14 000 dollarilla.

Valitettavasti ylöspäin suuntautunut liike oli lyhytikäinen. Nouseva vauhti rikkoi vastustasot, mutta myyntipaine oli ylivoimainen, kun kolikko putosi takaisin alueelle sidottuun vyöhykkeeseen. Muuten, nämä vastustustasot ovat haitanneet Bitcoinin nousevaa liikettä. BTC: n kaupankäynnin arvo on 13 635 dollaria.

Tällä hetkellä hinta on noussut viimeaikaisen vastarinnan jälkeen 14 000 dollariin. Nousu jatkuu, jos hinta palaa ja löytää tukea yli 13 600 dollaria. Sillä välin sivusuunnassa liikkuminen $ 13,060 ja $ 13,800 välillä on alkanut. Ylöspäin, jos ostajat onnistuvat rikkomaan ylemmän hintaluokan ja vauhti säilyy, BTC nousee yli 14000 dollarin. Päinvastoin kuningasraha laskee, jos 13 060 dollaria rikotaan.

Bitcoin-indikaattorin lukema

Bitcoin on alle päivittäisen stokastisen 80%: n alueen. Se osoittaa, että kolikko on laskussa. Se tarkoittaa myös, että myyjät ovat nousseet yliostetulle alueelle hinnan laskemiseksi. Vastaavasti BTC on laskenut suhteellisen vahvuusindeksin tasolle 67. BTC on kuitenkin edelleen nousutrendialueella.

BTC + – + coindol.png
Tärkeimmät vastustusvyöhykkeet: 13 000 dollaria, 14 000 dollaria, 15 000 dollaria

Tärkeimmät tukialueet: 7000 dollaria, 6000 dollaria, 5000 dollaria

Mikä on BTC / USD: n mext-suunta?
Bitcoinin ylöspäin liikkuminen on todennäköistä, kun härät testaavat 14 000 dollarin vastarintaa kahdesti. 3. marraskuuta nousutrendillä BTC nousi korkeimmalle tasolle 14 062,80, mutta sitä vastustettiin. Retracated kynttilän runko testasi 61,8% Fibonacci retracement tasoa. Tämä retracement selittää, että BTC nousee ja saavuttaa tason 2.618 Fibonacci laajennustason. Se on korkein 14 518 dollaria